Current account deficit could ease to around 3 per cent in the current fiscal year from prior estimates of about 4 per cent due to sharp drop in global commodity prices.
The Indian rupee weakened against the US dollar due to rising crude oil prices, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and foreign fund outflows.
Leading Indian jewellery bodies, including the All India Gem & Jewellery Domestic Council (GJC) and Malabar Gold & Diamonds, have expressed support for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's appeal to reduce gold imports and are advocating for enhancements to the Gold Monetisation Scheme (GMS) to unlock India's vast idle gold reserves.
S&P Global Ratings projects India's economy to grow at 6.3 per cent even if crude oil prices average USD 130 per barrel in the current fiscal year, highlighting the nation's resilience amidst the West Asia crisis and strong commitment to fiscal consolidation.
India imports 80 percent of its oil, which adds to inflationary pressure.
India's current account surplus moderated to $15.5 billion or 2.4 per cent of the GDP in the July-September quarter of the current fiscal, the RBI said on Wednesday. The same was at $19.2 billion or 3.8 per cent of the GDP in the preceding three-month period on account of a rise in the merchandise trade deficit, the RBI said in a statement on 'Developments in India's Balance of Payments during the Second Quarter (July-September) of 2020-21'. It is for the third consecutive quarter that India's current account remained in surplus. In the last quarter of 2019-20, the surplus was $0.6 billion. Current account deficit/surplus reflects the difference between the outflow and inflow of foreign exchange in a country's current account.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has proposed immediate demand-side measures, including remote work, lower speed limits, and reduced air travel, to mitigate the impact of a global oil supply shock caused by Middle East disruptions.
'PM Modi is trying to reduce the volume of fuel consumed instead of raising prices sharply.'
If the conflict continues for a prolonged period, State-run oil companies may have to review retail fuel prices accordingly.
Petrol and diesel prices in India have been increased for the second time in a week, following a long freeze on revisions. The increase comes as global crude prices surge and state-run oil firms look to recoup losses.
Indian stock markets experienced a significant sell-off, with the Sensex tumbling over 1,300 points, driven by escalating crude oil prices due to US-Iran tensions and Prime Minister Narendra Modi's call for austerity measures, which amplified investor concerns about India's economic outlook.
Policies to address CAD has worked well believes the bank's economists.
'Once the market decides it wants to go up, it goes up -- no amount of bad news can really hold it back.'
Nomura has forecast the rupee at 61.6 against the dollar in Q1 and at 62 by Q4 of 2015.
'Even last year, when India bought gold, the physical quantity was much less than the previous years.'
Petrol and diesel prices have been increased by Rs 3 per litre each, marking the first hike in over four years, as state-run fuel retailers pass on some of the impact from surging global crude prices, which have been exacerbated by the Iran war.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra is now confronting the classic growth-inflation tradeoff, a situation exacerbated by the West Asia war, which threatens to end the 'goldilocks period' of low inflation and robust growth.
His officials are working on a series of steps to attract at least $20 billion in new investment to fund the deficit without depleting India's $300 billion in forex reserves.
S&P Global Ratings has increased India's GDP growth forecast for the next fiscal year to 7.1 per cent, citing private consumption, investment, and exports as key drivers. However, the agency also cautioned that the conflict in the Middle East could strain India's fiscal position due to higher energy prices.
Sensex and Nifty post steepest weekly loss in over a year, falling nearly 3 per cent.
The rupee plunged to a fresh low of 93.72 against the dollar on Friday, falling 1.15 per cent in a single session - its sharpest one-day decline since February 24, 2022 - as elevated crude oil prices and strong dollar demand from oil-marketing companies and foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) weighed on the currency.
The central bank is yet to consider actions such as a rate hike or mobilising dollar inflows from non-resident Indians to boost forex reserves as it cannot afford to continue with them for long when the rupee's internationalisation tops its agenda, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
In a bid to promote the use of domestic currency for cross-border settlements, the Reserve Bank on Wednesday announced a slew of measures, including allowing banks to lend in Indian Rupees to non-residents from Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka for bilateral trade.
Revenue collection next financial year may be affected, and, along with this, subsidies on food and fertilisers can go up if the war in West Asia drags for long, according to experts.
The benchmark BSE Sensex's trailing 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple has declined to 20.2x, its lowest since May 2020, driven by a record $42 billion FPI selloff since September 2024 and concerns over corporate earnings and economic growth.
The Indian rupee rebounded against the US dollar after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) restricted banks' net open positions in dollars. This move prompted banks to sell dollars, providing temporary support for the rupee amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices.
Fixed deposits from nationalised banks delivered higher returns than equities, outperforming both inflation and stock market benchmarks.
Foreign investors pulled out Rs 21,000 crore (around $2.3 billion) from Indian equities over the last four trading sessions amid deteriorating global risk sentiment triggered by the West Asia crisis.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted some 20 per cent of the global flows but even if it opens, damages to production facilities in the region will take time to repair, points out Sunita Narain.
It's time to step on the reforms accelerator.
India's merchandise trade deficit widened to a record $41.68 billion in October, as gold imports trebled and outbound shipments registered their sharpest contraction in 14 months, according to data released by the commerce department.
The deal shifts the US posture towards India from hostile to neutral, and that matters for growth, points out T T Ram Mohan.
Indian refiners are negotiating for additional crude cargoes from the US, Russia, and West Africa to ensure adequate supplies amid Middle East tensions. Refineries are maintaining normal processing rates and deferring maintenance to build reserves. The move comes as conflict impacts tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy transit route.
'Monsoon is the pran (life) of our water system.' 'A weak monsoon will have a very negative impact on crops and people's lives.'
Households should moderate large discretionary expenses for the time being.
'They should prioritise essential spending. They should maintain an emergency fund covering 6 to 12 months of expenses.'
Under the TMC, Bengal has seen expansion of welfare, but not big-ticket private investment.
In the present hyper-connected world, there are many domestic and global factors that affect financial markets. Of them, the most powerful and often least predictable are geopolitical events, which often boil down to one diplomatic headline.
India's retail inflation, which has stayed below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) 4 per cent target in recent times, is likely to remain benign in the coming months, RBI Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta said in a speech, on Friday, which was uploaded on the central bank's website on Tuesday. Headline inflation dipped to multi-year lows of around 1.5-2.8 per cent in late 2025.
Strong domestic growth will continue to draw foreign investment into the Indian economy, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra said on Tuesday. He said this was reflected in recent free trade agreements and investment commitments by large technology companies.
Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Friday warned that India's limited crude oil reserves of about 100 million barrels - sufficient for only 40-45 days of consumption - leave the country particularly vulnerable to supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing war in West Asia.
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